Keep Calm and Don't Move Your Stops.....

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Monday, July 10, 2017

Buy and Hold

Well I made money today...and I made a decent amount...1% I think...which is fine...BUT I totally screwed up the read and the execution. I should have just bought and held!

On NQ, I was short early and it was a nice trade, Had I held it to the LOD, I think I might have been done at that point. But I exited at Friday's POC which was a nice trade. However, I was really expecting it to go to Friday's HOD and then bounce which it did but not until after some crazy swings at the open. I actually bought Friday's HOD and POC level but I took it off at 20 ticks because I didn't believe it would launch up like it did. Afterall, price action was directly into over head resistance. I was unprepared for that. However, once it started showing strength, I bought it twice more, each time for only 20 ticks, again because I was unconvinced of the true strength of the upward move. To be fair, I still not really convinced it was real even at this late junction. So I made 80 ticks on NQ when there was 228 ticks to be had.

On CL, I bought and then closed it immediately, then bought it again on the test of the lows where it held a perfect fib 78.6pull back level. I bought it at the inside break level and of course closed it right away. I thought it was going down. Afterall, it had rejected at the Friday VAL low level which is what it was supposed to do in a down trend. So I resold it again at the VAL and again at Friday's POC, both losers. Then I wanted to buy it at the ORH which it often retests after breaking out, no fill and I then just walked away from CL after that.

So 80 ticks on NQ and - 20 ticks on CL for a net 20 ticks. Yes profitable today but seems like such a waste.

I think I overthought it. Instead of just going with the flow, I made assumptions about the firmness of VP levels when in fact, they are just that, levels subject to breakage. Price action and order flow at the levels are the key. I'm not proficient at that yet apparently.

Still I'm on a three day win streak. Haven't had that in a while.

Cheers.




5 comments:

  1. yup. you certainly over thought that, especially CL

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  2. http://www.thetradingquest.com/2017/06/do-what-works.html

    How good is your crystal ball? Some can see further than others, and knowing how far you can see is key.

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    Replies
    1. What a bunch of nonsense.

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    2. I believe you just might have mistook my intentions. Armchair quarterback as you state has absolutely nothing to do with it. Only noticing the APPEARANCE (Note, I don't know enough to state with conviction) of rapid change in trading styles based on I don't know what, and am not judging. Just interesting if Panda felt like expounding on the topic. If not, no big deal. Each journey is ones own.

      That being said, you get your wish after this post. No more posting from me. No big deal.

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    3. Since you replied with depth I owe you a honest response.

      If you call me quick to judge, it is not a false charge, on the same hand I have a low tolerance for trading platitudes. Plus one does need to see anywhere in the future to be profitable. Not in the least.

      Plus the anonymous handle gets my goat.

      However, Panda did overthink that trade sequence and as time goes on he may agree that "Doing what works" is essentially curve fitting.

      What works now, will not work in 6months, or when seasonality changes.

      There is NO other way than to trade other than a robust way to seek value inefficiencies (the market does not give a shit whether the opportunity she gives is conducive to one's styles). Styles can be adapted.

      It IS hard to change, but it IS more valuable to adapt oneself to the market, rather than to trade only when the market behaves exactly as you want it. If that is the case, one needs superhuman patience and an iron hand on taking small stops.

      Otherwise the law of probability will come and bite back.

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